Paris Saint-Germain lifted the Champions League trophy for the first time in their history last May after a stunning 5-0 demolition of Inter Milan in Munich. It was a moment that felt inevitable for a club that had invested so heavily in European glory over the years, and Luis Enrique’s side looked unstoppable as they completed a historic treble.
But less than a year later, the picture looks remarkably different, and the Champions League latest odds reflect a dramatic shift in expectations.
From Favorites to Outsiders
The defending champions have endured a difficult campaign in the league phase of this season’s competition, and their struggles have been reflected in the betting markets. PSG started the season as favorites to retain their title, but after finishing 11th in the table and being forced into the knockout playoffs, their odds have drifted significantly.
Arsenal have now emerged as the bookmakers’ choice after winning all eight of their opening matches, whilst Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Manchester City are all considered more likely to lift the trophy than the reigning champions.
Familiar Territory
What makes PSG’s situation particularly fascinating is that they’ve been here before. Last season, they also had to navigate the playoff round after a shaky start, finishing 15th in the table and facing fellow French side Brest before going on to win the whole thing.
That experience might offer some comfort to supporters who believe this team has the quality and resilience to turn things around when it matters most.
The difference this time is that they look visibly fatigued, having played an exhausting number of matches throughout 2025 across multiple competitions.
The Monaco Challenge
Their immediate challenge comes in the form of Monaco, whom they face over two legs in the knockout playoffs. The all-French tie has captured plenty of attention, not least because PSG have already lost to Monaco in Ligue 1 this season.
The bookmakers make Luis Enrique‘s side clear favorites to progress, but current form suggests this won’t be straightforward. Monaco finished 16th in the league phase with 10 points, and whilst they’re considered significant underdogs, they’ve shown enough quality to cause problems.
What Lies Beyond
If PSG can get past Monaco, they could face either Barcelona or Chelsea in the round of 16, both of which present serious obstacles.
Barcelona under Hansi Flick has been transformed and is playing some of the most attractive football in Europe right now, whilst Chelsea possesses the physical intensity and tactical discipline that could suffocate PSG’s creative players. The Blues finished in the top eight and secured automatic qualification, which means they’ll have home advantage in the second leg.
PSG’s defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed repeatedly this season, and you’d back either opponent to capitalize on those weaknesses over two matches.
PSG remain in the conversation because of their undeniable quality and recent experience of winning this competition, but the odds tell a clear story. They’re no longer considered amongst the genuine frontrunners, and their path to retaining the trophy looks considerably more difficult than it did six months ago.
Whether they can summon the same magic that carried them to glory last season remains the biggest question hanging over European football right now.
