CIES Football Observatory has developed an econometric approach to estimate the transfer value of professional players scientifically. Their method resulted in Paris Saint-Germain forward Kylian Mbappé seeing his value drop from €265-million a year ago to €149.4-million now in CIES’ latest ranking.
However, the 22-year-old isn’t the lone capital club player seeing his transfer value dip. Neymar Jr. saw his transfer value dip too. Last year, CIES put the 28-year-old’s value at €100-million, and in their latest update, it fell to €32-million.
The website understands that there will be some criticism over having the Brazil international’s value fall, so Raffaele Poli, a doctor in human sciences and director of CIES, explained the decision to Le Parisien (via Canal Supporters).
Poli states that their method uses Neymar’s age, number of appearances with PSG, and contract to explain why his value fell. However, he does add that their model doesn’t take the current context, which is one of the criticisms they receive.
“We have been taking statistics into account for two years. We can see that he has played very little since January 2019. Much less than in Barcelona before. His age is advancing; his contract only lasts 18 months. It is in an area where its value is dropping significantly. The contract also explains the decline in value of Kylian Mbappé. Our model is used by clubs, and like any model, it has its advantages and disadvantages,” Poli said.
“I would be careful not to say that it is the absolute truth. But when Neymar signed at PSG, it was estimated practically at the price of his clause (€222-million). It shows that it was plausible to buy it at such a high price. We use objective facts for a scientific model. But this model doesn’t see it’s Neymar, his potential, etc. The current context is not really taken into account either. It is also a criticism.”
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